The Cowboys want to extend CeeDee Lamb, here's how much it's projected to cost

Lamb ranks first or second in every category except yards per reception and total routes ran. He has a slam-dunk case to surpass all three of the other receivers on this list in terms of APY on his new deal. Pittman has the high-water mark of the group at $23,333,333 per year, setting the floor for Lamb’s extension. But since Lamb has a case to supersede that number, it’s important to find a new group of comps to find out just how much higher.

Six receivers currently have a higher APY than Pittman: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. All six of those receivers signed their current deals following the 2021 season in what I am dubbing “The Great Receiver Contract Year”. Lamb’s 2021-2023 stretch compares very well to that group’s 2019-2021 run.

This group can be bisected into two distinct sub-sections. The first (Hill, Adams, Kupp) were all veterans already working on a non-rookie contract. All three had sustained top-of-the-league production over a multiple year stretch. The second were young receivers who were coming up on the end of their rookie deals who didn’t have the volume production of the first three, but their efficiency metrics (yards per route run) were off the charts.

The lone exception was Metcalf, who had the lowest yds/rr. But his TD and yards production was within shouting distance of the lowest player in the first group, showing a hybrid of the two sub-groups that helped him secure a deal in the overall range.

Adding Lamb into this tier here is where he ranks in each of the eight categories:

• Routes: 1st
• Targets: 1st
• Receptions: t-2nd
• Catch Rate: 3rd
• Yards: 1st
• Yds/Rec: 5th
• Yds/rr: 3rd
• TD: 5th

Lamb is top-three in five of the eight areas and does not rank bottom-two in any of them. This gives him a great case for making him the highest paid receiver in the league, which would come with an APY north of $30 million per year.

Dallas may counter that the overall body of work more aligns with top-three receiver money. Currently Kupp is third in APY at $26,700,000 per year. But Kupp, like the rest of the pass-catchers we are comparing Lamb to, signed his deal ahead of the 2022 season. That year the NFL salary cap was $208.2 million. Kupp’s deal represented just 12.8% of the cap. Adjusting that rate to this year’s $255.4 million salary cap would equate to a $32.75 million APY. This feels like the right number for the two parties to come to terms on. Lamb can argue that he is giving Dallas a break by not seeking Hill’s 14.4% of cap deal, while Dallas can tell Lamb they are giving him the biggest APY deal in league history for a receiver (and clearing Hill’s current deal by $2.5 million per year).

Lamb just turned 25 on April 8, so a four-year contract would cover his age 25-28 seasons and give him the opportunity to hit the market a full year before his 30th birthday. That would set the overall parameters of the deal at four years and $131 million. Most of the high end receiver deals signed over the past three years have come with full guarantees ranging from 45-50% of the total contract.

This leaves room for Lamb to secure between $60 and 65 million fully due to him. Given that Hill’s $52,535,000 is also the current top of the market, Dallas should be able to keep Lamb’s figure towards the lower end of that range by arguing it’s almost a full $7.5 million increase on Hill.

Given that Dallas has made the decision to absorb almost all of quarterback Dak Prescott’s $60 million 2024 salary cap hit, rather than extend him and reduce it, the team will need to find savings somewhere as they continue to round out their roster with low-price free agents and their incoming rookie class. Lamb’s extension could be that vehicle. He is currently set to play on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. That comes with a one-year salary cap price tag of $17,991,000.

The extension could take the place of the option. In doing so, a hypothetical structure of $50 million signing bonus with base salary/roster bonus hits of $1.125M, $21.675M ($8.875M guaranteed), $27.2M and $31M would lower his 2024 cap hit $6,866,000 to $11.125M.

This hypothetical structure would also give Lamb healthy cash flows of $51,125,000 in 2024 (39% of the total deal) and $21,675,000 in 2025 (17%). That would be easily the highest two-year total of any wide receiver in league history.

Final Contract Projection: Four years, $131 million, $60 million fully guaranteed.